The Other Oil Crisis?
May 21, 2026
Alex KiersteinDue for an oil change? Might want to get it done soon, as reports have emerged revealing a looming shortage for certain engine oils.
It makes sense, on a level, which is how these things get started. The Iran War, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, swinging crude prices, high pump prices. Why wouldn’t the geopolitical dumpster fire spawn a shortage of motor oil, too? Add in an alleged motor oil shortage and the local news ecosystem, and you have a reporter in Las Vegas investigating on the ground whether local repair shops are having trouble getting oil.
This was set off by a post on X, with an oil distributor posting a PANT bulletin from Toyota that appears to indicate Toyota is concerned about its supply of 0W-8 and 0W-16 viscosity oils from ExxonMobil, asking techs to substitute those for other oils for one service interval. These are modern, ultra-efficient oil viscosities, alien to anyone with an older car who is generally picking up 5W-30 or 10W-40. But these low-friction formulations help modern engines eek out a bit more efficiency, and they’re designed to run it.
While the X post brought the potential shortage into the broader discourse, lubricant industry experts have been expressing alarm in trade publications. Those in the know indicate the real issue is the base stocks and additives used to make specialized synthetic oils, like those 0W formulas. The Iran War and the side conflicts it has exacerbated has led to damage (or disruption) to some of the facilities that produce these base stocks. The Independent Lubricant Manufacturer’s Association (ILMA) is ringing the alarm, noting a shortage of base stocks.
Thus, while there may or may not be a real shortage of on the ground finished product right now, there’s a good chance it is coming. There’s a very good chance the PANT bulletin represents one way consumers will experience the fallout: difficulty getting specific specialty lubricants for certain applications. If that seems niche, it is—but it’s not the full extent of the fallout of an extended base stock shortage.
An ILMA representative noted to Bloomberg (via Transport Topics) that nearly half of US market base stocks come from Middle East producers, which has the knock-on effect of reducing US imports of South Korean base stocks as well. The tightening supply hasn’t just affected pricing and availability; it’s also affecting the products that refineries choose to make. Instead of synthetic motor oil, many refineries have decided to produce diesel (which utilizes the same base stocks) as well.
Oil products have gotten significantly more expensive. That same Transport Topics article notes that the wholesale price of GM Dexos licensed oils, which typically use the base stocks in shortage, have jumped $5 per gallon. (A 55-gallon drum of Dexos oil appears to run $12–$18 per gallon right now, to put that in context.) ILMA is requesting that Dexos-certified lubricant manufacturers be allowed to substitute the affected base stocks without running affoul of the Dexos licensing agreement.
The longer the Iran situation drags on, the worse the stocks of these products get, and it could have ripple effects, driving up prices of all synthetics. Substitute oil feedstocks might not satisfy demand, particularly given the complexities of the situation facing refiners.
The bottom line is that this is a real problem that is not likely to get better in the immediate future. At a minimum, pricing and product composition are changing. Finished product shortages, whether at the bulk/wholesale level or in your local auto parts store, may not be occurring at this moment but are possible in the near future.
Panic? There are other things to panic about. But if you own a late-model vehicle that uses an ultra-low viscosity motor oil that’s due for a change soon, I’ve read enough to advise you to get it done now and maybe by enough for the next change, too.
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