Juxtaposition
December 31, 2025
Alex KiersteinGM’s stock is up and the future looks bright. Tesla’s delivery outlook looks gloomy, and investors are pinning hopes on dreams of autonomy.
General Motors is up to a record $82 a share as of this writing, a record since the massive automaker’s 2009 bankruptcy. Per CNBC, the company appears well positioned to benefit from fuel economy standard cuts and a disciplined approach that has allowed steady sales increases and, more importantly, optimism for continued profitability and shareholder returns. Meanwhile, Tesla’s investors seem to be betting on the future, because the electric automaker’s sales forecast looks gloomy.
How gloomy depends on the perspective. Tesla compiled a number of forecasts that show a roughly 15% drop for fourth-quarter deliveries compared to last year. The forecasts also converge on an 8% annual sales decline. That would make the second straight annual sales decline, notable because Tesla was once known for year-over-year increases.
The loss of federal EV tax credits and regulatory credits (the latter being a major source of income for the automaker, arguably the most important over its history) are significant headwinds for Tesla. There are also a number of other factors that are weighing Tesla down that simply aren’t a factor for GM.
One is an aging lineup. It’s not that they are obsolete, but the freshness and consumer appeal may be waning despite recent facelifts and cut-rate base model introductions. There’s no indication that Elon Musk is interested in new hardware at this point, being focused on AI, robotaxi, and human-like robot initiatives that may appeal to investors but don’t have much short-term impact on the auto sales business.
Musk’s MAGA alignment, very public spat with President Trump, and the fallout from both have also created significant tension with core Tesla buyers. The impact has been harsh in Europe, specifically.
Meanwhile, GM has lots of product, a regulatory framework that will definitely benefit it, a disciplined public relations schema that avoids overt partisan drama, and a relentless focus on profitability and return for investors. Perhaps it’s a sign that right now, fundamentals are more important than the sparkly promises of a future return.
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