Affordability Crisis?
March 6, 2026
Alex KiersteinCars with a lower MSRP aren't abnormally expensive. It's just that everything is expensive.
There have been a lot of articles lately on an auto affordability crisis. Like this one, from today, in the New York Times. (Famously a paper that is very in touch with lower-middle-class socioeconomic issues!) And then there is an article in Automotive News, also from today, claiming there is no crisis. No affordability crisis? In this economy?
Of course, it’s all about how you interpret the data. And look, the data overall isn’t good for price-conscious car buyers. There is no underground supply of never-sold mid-2000s Corollas going for 2002 prices. No war surplus Jeeps in crates. Just our economy, in 2026, and what that broader financial pain does for an average wageearner’s transportation costs.
Remember that study from Kelley Blue Book/Cox Automotive a while back, about average vehicle transaction prices? I was stunned by a data point in it: just 7.5% of new vehicles sold in November 2025 had an MSRP of less than $30,000. 10.8% had an MSRP of over $75,000. So, there is an affordability crisis in the sense that few cars are being sold in the “affordable” category, overall. The average transaction price at the time of that study was nearly $50,000.
Partly due to the traction this generated in the media, David Thomas, director of content marketing and an automotive industry analyst at CDK Global, refined the data a bit to get a better idea of whether what we used to call “volume cars”—the Camry, et cetera—have drastically increased in price. What Thomas found is, essentially, that vehicles in the $35,000 range mainly tracked inflation. (He does not mention whether or not wages and disposable income have mostly kept pace iwth inflation.)
Head over and read Thomas’ take in AN if you want to hear more of his reasoning, but it makes a lot of sense that higher-priced (and often, higher-margin) vehicles skew the data. But also, this realization doesn’t do much for the average lower-income new car intender. With the Iran War and resulting shipping disruptions and higher oil prices, inflation shouldn’t just remain high—it’ll increase.
And I doubt automakers will respond by suddenly focusing on ultra-affordability. And, signs point to the used car market heating back up, as well.
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